It forecasts gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) of £39.80 this year, up from £39.62 in 2009, which was 11.4% below 2008.
Next year, GOPPAR is expected to reach £42.97.
Revenue per available room (revPAR), meanwhile, is forecast at £62.77 this year, 0.6% better than in 2009, and to grow by a further 3.2% next year to £64.80.
This year’s revPAR growth will be driven by a 0.6 percentage point improvement in occupancy to 73.3%, although rates are expected to decline by 0.2% to £85.64.
Rates will return to growth in 2010, rising 1.2% to £86.69, with occupancy 1.5pp ahead year-on-year at 74.8%.
London hotels are forecast to outperform their regional counterparts, with GOPPAR improving by 3.5% this year to £60.71 and by a further 7% next year to £64.99.
RevPAR in the capital will improve by 2.5% this year to £91.27 and by 3.4% next year to £94.40.
TRI assumes leisure demand in London will remain robust in 2010, predicated on sterling continuing to be weak throughout the year, while international corporate demand is expected to increase.
In the provinces, TRI forecasts a 3.2% GOPPAR fall to £27.60 this year, although next year it will bounce back, increasing 9.1% to £30.12.
Regional revPAR is expected to slide by 1.4% to £46.15 in 2010, and to improve by 3% to £47.53 in 2011.
TRI said this year would be tough for provincial hoteliers as domestic consumers’ spending power falls due to the increase in VAT, rising unemployment and ‘virtually inevitable stringent Government spending policy’ following the General Election.
TRI’s latest report was based on a sample of 480 hotels across the UK, with an average size of 187 rooms.
See also:
Savvy London hoteliers hold their nerve (02/02/2010)
Leisure demand shores up regional hotels (28/01/2010)
Hopes for hotel trade recovery (25/01/2010)
London hotels recover as regionals struggle (05/01/2010)
Room rates could take five years to recover (23/12/2009)