The forecast is based on figures from STR Global showing that provincial hotels saw revenue per available room (revPAR) decline by 7.7% year-on-year to £44 in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Both occupancy and average room rates continued to fall, by 1.1% and 6.7% to 66% and £67 respectively.
Preliminary results for 2009 as a whole, meanwhile, suggest an 11.9% year-on-year decline in regional revPAR to £45.
Marvin Rust, hospitality managing partner at Deloitte, commented: ‘What is most worrying about the performance in the regions is that occupancy is still falling, an indication that 2010 will continue to be tough outside the capital.
‘Although the first half of 2010 may show signs of recovery in occupancy (as Q1 and Q2 2009 saw significant declines), it is important to note that this may only be a ‘technical bounce’ and the real recovery, at best, is unlikely to be before the second half of this year.’
The picture for London hotels in the last quarter of 2009 was more positive, with revPAR rising 5.5% to £110.
Occupancy was the key driver of growth in the capital, increasing by 5.8% to an ‘outstanding’ 82.9%, but average room rates fell 0.2% to £133.
Rust said: ‘Hotels in the capital have been going from strength to strength during the last three months of 2009.
‘With sterling still weak against a basket of currencies, London seems set to continue on a fast track to recovery.
‘Although there may be some downward movement in average room rates in the corporate market, due to the fact that corporate rates have already been re-contracted for next year, the overseas and domestic leisure markets continue to be robust and preliminary year-end results from STR Global show a decline of just 4.8% for the capital.’
This means revPAR for 2009 as a whole in London will be in the region of £101.
All figures are taken from STR Global’s daily data from 1 January-26 December 2009.
See also:
London ‘getting to grips with the recession’ (04/01/2010)
Hoteliers ‘should take heart’ as occupancy stabilises (21/12/2009)
'Great' November for London hotels (07/12/2009)
Regional hotels still struggling (26/10/2009)
Weekend leisure demand lifts London hotels (19/10/2009)